PREVIOUS MONTH

• The unspoken yet powerful impact from Trump’s economic and politic policies Happening

• The euphoria business favour to Stock Market from Trump’s effect which bring optimism for Investor especially in Tech Sector Happening

• The craziness of crypto’s domino effect for investor for sure Happening – Break $100K and still continue up!!

• The unfriendly relationship with China but status quo with North Korea and Russia create ambiguity in market Happening

GLOBAL MARKET

• The awaiting of Trump’s inauguration this Jan 2025 by the investors (expected strong positive even with rollercoaster).

• The shining of precious metal and crypto will be dominant in early 2025 (mostly positive - continue the vibe from last year).

• The continuity of Magnificent 7 Tech company good performance will boost the US Market to hitting high record (mostly positive and should be undoubtful).

• The Fed continue to press the interest rate below 4% will be expected in this year subject to inflation can be maintain below 3% (expected to done and positive to the market).

• The outcome from the weaken of Asia’s biggest country currency policies – RMB (expected negative for other Asia countries).

• The tension of military action in Rusia – Ukraina, Israel – Houthis, and Unification issue between China – Taiwan (expected negative for global market).

• The suffering in Indonesia’s equity market due to ‘The Investment Behaviour by Investor’ while most of the Indonesia’s economic outlook still promising (expected negative within Q1).

US Market

• Above of all, the ultimate position for global investor to act is the expectedTrump’s government policies pre and post inauguration on Jan 2025.

• Most sophisticated investors are expecting their portfolio to became green especially in US Equity Market with underlying mostly in technology stock due to the good earnings report and positive euphoria of Trump’s future support for the market.

• Beside the Tech stock, another highly possible shining investable asset will be coming from crypto and precious metal as the alternative investment.

• Both situation above will be complemented by the improvement in AI development which will boost the euphoria became more solid.

THE FED

• Economists are now warning of stagflation—where high inflation combines with sluggish growth—as market dynamics change. Gold prices are up 29% since March, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to its highest level since late 2022.

• These two assets rarely rise together, but the unusual pairing means that markets are bracing for the return of inflation. “This move in longterm rates can’t be ignored,” Trump said. “Markets are fighting the Fed at a historic pace, and inflation is being priced back in.”

• The situation is eerily reminiscent of the dotcom bubble, with rate movements defying historical trends. Analysts are calling this an unprecedented “Fed versus market” showdown, with the stakes higher than ever.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/president-trump-slams-the-fed-overskyrocketing-interest-rates/ar-AA1x7MSO

DOW JONES FUTURE PARAMETER

We see the ‘Double Bottom’ pattern which will break through again above 43.500 with timeframe within Q1 2025 especially in this January 2025, once break it will continue above 44.000 till next resistance 45.000.

MAGNIFICENT 7 EARNINGS

The persistency double digit earnings growth is undeniable for pure play investor to keep their interest and majority portfolio in these big names. In fact, some US senators rake in massive gains in tech stock.

https://www.msn.com/enus/money/other/president-trump-slamsthe-fed-over-skyrocketing-interest-rates/arAA1x7MSO

GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS TENSION

• Russia and Ukraine, will still continue in this year until Putin succeed his plan to take over Ukraine.

• Israel and Houthis, unlikely solve immediately especially with US involvement.

• China andTaiwan, is old matter but will bring big time bomb to the market

ASIA MARKET

• China's central bank has reacted strongly to the depreciation of the yuan even though its weakening against the US dollar is modest compared to other Asian currencies, showing Beijing's resolve to keep the exchange rate within its desired narrow range.

• It seems the People's Bank of China is extremely sensitive to the so-called threshold in both onshore and offshore yuan markets, and it is not hard to imagine that the central bank would not hesitate to escalate its countermeasures if the yuan started to test these key levels.

• China's economy is expected to grow at about 5 percent in 2025, compared to an estimated 2 percent for the US. That means China can narrow the nominal GDP gap with the US as long as the yuan does not weaken significantly against the dollar.

• In developing Asia, weaker consumption and moderating export growth led to a slowdown in Q3 2024, bringing year-to-date growth to 5.0%.

• The PRC’s economy slowed to 4.6% growth in Q3, due to weak domestic demand and a prolonged property sector downturn.

• India’s growth in Q2 (FY 2024, ending 31 March 2025) slowed more than expected, due to weak industrial output as tighter prudential norms by the central bank curtailed growth in unsecured personal loans, along with muted public capital spending and elevated food prices.

• Elsewhere in the region, GDP growth surprised on the upside in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies, lifted by strong domestic demand.

INDONESIA MARKET

• Despite of a lot good economic data provided, Indonesia market should be becoming the favorite for global investors but due to high preference to chasing the ‘promising land return – US Market’ affected the global investor as well as local investor investment needs.

• The unreasonable of the current Indonesia stock market deep dive especially the big banks and big market cap as the majority investment portfolio trigger emotional chaos for local investor and make them hold their placement also suddenly became conservative mode.

• Some crucial obstacles such as unfavorable investment policies, labor, high business cost and uncertain demand make additional downside of Indonesia economy.

• Bank Indonesia need to immediately start to reduce the BI rate (expected below 5%) for the benefit of the decreasing of borrowing cost which can boosting the business and definitely contributing the Indonesia economy.

• The fear of weakening IDR will actually no need to take it seriously as actually it will diverse psychologically by investor to collect more IDR instead of USD with the cut of BI rate.

• The monetary and fiscal policies that favor to business for sure will favor to market and this is the local investor looking forward.

INVESTMENT INSIGHT

• 2025 will be the challenging in Indonesia economics and business when market need to unwind the new tax 12% that has been implemented.

• 2025 will be the strong era of IT for Indonesia in order to keep up their performances and updated their knowledges parameters.

• 2025 will be the modernization of the industrialization otherwise the government, entrepreneur until professional will be left behind.

• 2025 will be the rise of Non-Banking industry in Wealth Management and more of senior or veteran RMs in the bank joining the Non-Banking industry.

• 2025 will be the turbulence for Indonesia stock market which selective picking definitely make the call.

INVESTMENT CALL

• We keep recommending US Market that have basis in Technology stock (especially in Magnificent 7) due to strong balance sheet, revenue and steady growth of earnings (product wise will be Batavia Technology Sharia Equity Fund).

• We keep Fixed Income Fund and Money Market Fund in IDR as majority portfolio due to security and comfort zone in facing turbulence market (product wise will be Sucorinvest Money Market including Sharia one, and TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A).

• We maintain cautious and very selective in Indonesia Equity Fund due to some lagging performance but still worth to allocate some of fund in to invest (product wise will be, SUCORINVEST MAXI FUND, SUCORINVEST PREMIUM FUND and TRIM Kapital Plus).

January 2025 Themes is still Favor to US Tech stock and High Coupon Bond

Money Market Fund => Hunt the YTD Return above 3,8% (Increase the Weight)

Fixed Income Fund => Hunt the YTD Return above 5% (Increase the Weight)

Government Bond => Hunt the Yield above 6,5% for IDR and above 4,5% for USD (Stabilize the Weight)

Corporate Bonds => Hunt the Yield above 7,5% for IDR and above 5% for USD with minimum rating single A (Increase the Weight)

Equity Fund => favour in US Market with underlying Tech stock (Increase the Weight)