Previous Month
Para investor yang menunggu pelantikan Trump di 20 Januari ini (berdampak sangat positif - Terjadi).
Logam mulia dan crypto yang makin bersinar dan dominan di awal tahun 2025 ini (majority positif - Terjadi).
Masih berlanjutnya kinerja yang baik dari saham Magnificent 7 yang mendukung Pasar Amerika dalam menembus rekor tertingginya kembali (majority positif - Terjadi).
Fed akan terus menekan penurunan suku bungannya agar dibawah 4% dimana diharapkan terjadi di tahun ini asalkan inflasi bisa dijaga dibawah 3% (berimbas posifit terhadap
pasar - Terjadi).
Akibat atas kebijakan melemahnya mata uang dari negarapaling besar – RMB (diperkirakan negative terhadap negara non Asia lainnya - Terjadi).
Tensi atas aksi militer di Rusia – Ukraini, Israel – Houthis, dan unifikasi China - Taiwan (berdampak negatif terhadap pasar global - Terjadi).
Pasar saham Indonesia yang kondisinya tidak baik akibat ‘Perilaku investasi para investor’ dimana berbanding terbalik dengan data ekonomi Indonesia yang sangat menarik (diperkirakan negatif sampai Kwartal 1 - Ongoing
Global Market – US Market
The Trump’s unpredictable effect, from tariff war, politic and economic policies, government regulations and business decisions already brings roller coaster to the whole world market with majority got hit by negative sentiment and will still continue except for US market
that still bullish (US positive).
US Market with AI technology (mostly Mag 7) will be more interesting for global investor as the Trump’s economic policies starting to give positive impact for speculative investment combine with the comprehensive fundamental basis (positive).
Precious metal will still focus in Gold and some Crypto currencies as the inflation expected to put on ‘fear’ in the market while the condition likely as ‘bark’ rather than ‘bite’ and investor continue to expect the FED cut more rate in this year for the benefit of the overall US business rather just only one cut even the chance is slim (positive).
Global Market – European Market and Asia Market
Europe market unlikely to grow rapidly the appetite for global investor as the business still
strongly picking up while the geopolitics tension with US still escalating due to trade war
between two zone which triggered by Trump’s tariff (negative).
Asia market still dominate by China market and currently at stage of recovery with some volatility in tact and expected to became market focus after first semester despite many obstacle that need to solve and improve (neutral).
Indonesia Market
Cautious traders continued to back off from riskier assets after Indonesia's leader Prabowo Subianto instructed a massive budget cut last week, likely saving up to USD 18.8 billion in spending for the 2025 fiscal year for his signature free school meal program. Recent data showed that the country's GDP grew by 5.03% in 2024, below the official target of 5.2%. Infrastructure and energy pressured the major index, with steep falls from Indocement (-4.5%), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (-3.8%), Adaro Energy (-2.6%), and United Tractors (-2.5%).
Indonesia 10Y Bond Yield was 6.94 percent on Monday February 10, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity.
Historically, the Indonesia 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 21.11 in October of 2008.
Source : Trading Economics
Investment Point of View
First quartal will be very tough for global market due to the trade war, lack of demand, very picky investor choice in investment and slow quantitative easing but US Market will be the ‘eyes’ for global investor.
Bonds will playing pivotal role in driving investment flow and safety option for investor beside commodity and crypto currencies, the continues demand will keep high despite the return slowly lower.
USD will be benefiting the most from all the chaotic as the Trump’s goal is to make US ‘needs’ by global market became high again therefore it will not a surprise to see Dollar index keep up.
China will only ‘the savior’ for Asia Market once they manage to solve all the domestic issue as well as provide more incentive for their neighbor countries especially always do bilateral trading.
Indonesia investor will be need to pick those underlying that generate a fixed return with shorter tenure while keep find momentum in offshore sharia asset in order to grow their positive return.
Investment Call
We still recommended US Market base on Tech sector (majority in Magnificent 7) with additional downstream underlying, strong balanced, high earnings and income, also follow with Active portfolio (our recommendation will be Batavia Technology Sharia Equity Fund).
We keep Fixed Income portfolio from Mutual Fund and Bonds as the majority portfolio added with Money Market Fund as the support liquidity (our recommendation will be Sucorinvest Money Market and the Sharia also TRIM Kas 2 Kelas A).
We are very cautious for Equity market either in Mutual Fund and Direct Stock due to the drop appetite of global investor as well as local investor for majority ASEAN market and the preference still goes to US market with the specific sector such as Technology related with AI basis (our take a snap will be SUCORINVEST MAXI FUND, SUCORINVEST PREMIUM FUND dan TRIM Kapital Plus).
