PREVIOUS MONTH
OPTIMISMS
- Another The Fed Fund Rate around 25bps which follow investor expectation but if 50bps (unlikely) will make the US equity market goes crazy high (HAPPENING)
- Positive outlook keep continue by strong economic data especially in US and injection positive stimulus in China (HAPPENING)
- Positive earnings in Q3 of the Magnificent 7 bring the euphoria positive to the global market (HAPPENING)
- New Government that bring Big Hope for Indonesia Market (HAPPENING)
CONCERNS
- Long-running tension in the Middle East area triggered by Israel.
- The unknown impact from the future president in his first 30 days of policies.
- The nervousness of global investor in choosing the right underlying and market.
- Clash between Old and New Indonesia’s Economic Policies
US MARKET
- The unspoken yet powerful impact from Trump’s economic and politic policies (in between positive and negative).
- The euphoria business favour to Stock Market from Trump’s effect which bring optimism for Investor especially in Tech Sector (mostly bring positive).
- The craziness of crypto’s domino effect for investor for sure (positive).
- The unfriendly relationship with China but status quo with North Korea and Russia create ambiguity in market (just in between positive and negative).
CHINA MARKET
- POBC waiting new stimulus from the government to implement superior policies in monetary and fiscal (just positive).
- Restriction of business from US Government slowing down China’s economic expansion (just negative).
- Growing demand across Asia market bring the industry coming to alive especially with the automation technology support (just positive).
THE HAPPENING
- Either US or Global will very dependent to Technology with the basis of AI starting 2025 onward.
- Each company reflect the penetration of AI and will continue to evolve in the favor to human being.
- Use AI in creating ‘Super Human’ rather being use as ‘Super AI’ (from Jensen Huang though about AI)
INDONESIA MARKET
- 2025 will be the challenging in Indonesia economics and business when tax arise 12% which more downside revenue will be happening.
- 2025 will be the strong era of IT for Indonesia in order to keep up their performances and updated their knowledges parameters.
- 2025 will be the modernization of the industrialization otherwise the government, entrepreneur until professional will be left behind.
- 2025 will be the rise of Non Banking industry in Wealth Management due to the lack of the expertise and the people in the Banking sector.
- 2025 will be the turbulence for Indonesia stock market which selective picking definitely make the call.
INVESTMENT CALL
- We like more to US Market that have basis in Technology stock (especially in Magnificent 7) due to strong balance sheet, revenue and steady growth (product wise will be Batavia Technology Sharia Equity Fund).
- We still like Fixed Income Fund and Money Market Fund in IDR denomination due to security and comfort zone in facing turbulence market (product wise will be Sucorinvest Money Market including Sharia one, and Tri Megah).
- We cautious and selective in Indonesia Equity Fund due to some lagging performance but still worth to allocate some of fund in to invest (product wise will be East spring Investments Alpha Navigator Kelas A, SUCORINVEST MAXI FUND, SUCORINVEST PREMIUM FUND and Trimegah Balanced Absolute Strategy Kelas A).
December Themes is Favor to US Tech stock and High Coupon Bond Recommendation:
- Money Market Fund => Hunt the YTD Return above 3,8% (Increase the Weight)
- Fixed Income Fund => Hunt the YTD Return above 5% (Increase the Weight)
- Government Bond => Hunt the Yield above 6,5% for IDR and above 4,5% for USD (Stabilize the Weight)
- Corporate Bonds => Hunt the Yield above 7,5% for IDR and above 5% for USD with minimum rating single A (Increase the Weight)
- Equity Fund => favour in US Market with underlying Tech stock (Increase the Weight)
