WALKING AMONG THE VOLATILITIES & MAINTAIN GREEN RETURN MOMENTUM
Topics
- Issues and Multiplier Effects
- Global Point of View
- Indonesia Market Point of View
- Market opportunities
- Strategies and Next Steps
Issues and multiplier effects
These are the main topics that will drive the capital market and impact the global economy:
- Geopolitics and Economics Tension
- Trump’s Tarif and His Inhouse Policies and Politics
- Gold and Crypto Hype
- Fed’s Further Cut Rate
- Tech’s Bubble and All Time High Fear vs The Strong Earnings
Among all issues that give multiplier effects to global economy as well as global market, we believe only 3 issues will dominant and continue until next year 2026.
irst, Trump’s Tarif and his Inhouse Policies especially the Economy Policies that trigger turmoil in
global politics but in other hand Investor will wait that moment as the opportunity to enter the
capital market after correction in market triggered (this also factor in the domestic US
Government condition like the (‘shutdown’ effect).
Second, Fed’s Further Cut Rate absolutely bring hope to the US economy in terms of flexible and
liquidity easing due to liquidity floated to the market so that cost of business cheaper also
expected to roll over to 2026.
Third, Tech’s Bubble and All Time High which only seeing from number perspective while the
another angle that come from fundamental (more important) such as PE Ratio then we can see
current Nvidia PE it’s about 17x much lower compare to Walmart or Cosco that hit around 40x.
All above issues not yet counting US economic indicator that continue stronger and manageable
inflation despite some worried it will burst above 4% if the rate continues lower whilst the
investors see differently.
GLOBAL POINT OF VIEW
Global Economic Outlook
Majority of countries are expected to grow at slower pace in 2025
US ECONOMIC FORECAST
The upside scenario assumes that the tariff rate falls to about 7.5% by the end of 2026. We
assume that Canada and Mexico are able to secure favourable trade deals by the second half
of 2026 under a revised United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. In addition, we assume
that product exemptions, court rulings, and additional trade deals lower the average tariff
rate further.
Despite much lower tariffs, the US economy is still expected to grow at a slower rate in 2025
compared with the previous two years. It is not until 2026 that the effect of the difference in
tariff rates shows up more clearly in the inflation data. Softer inflation gives consumers more
purchasing power. In addition, strong immigration puts upward pressure on aggregate
demand. This allows real consumer spending to grow by 1.9% in 2026, only modestly lower
than the 2.1% expected in 2025.
The downside scenario assumes a larger rise in tariffs relative to our baseline. We assume
that the average tariff rate rises to about 20%, as products such as pharmaceuticals and
semiconductors that are currently undergoing Section 232 investigations in the United
States7 are ultimately tariffed. We also assume that net migration falls to zero from 2026
through 2030. This could come from fewer entrants into the country as well as an increase in
deportations. Finally, we assume that the Fed makes a policy mistake by lowering rates too
quickly. Given the economic environment where inflation and unemployment are rising, we
assume the Fed sets monetary policy to accommodate unemployment, which then results in
higher inflation and a corresponding correction to policy.
Higher tariffs result in stronger inflation under this scenario. The personal consumption
expenditures price index rises at the same pace as the baseline until 2026, when more of the
tariff costs are passed on to consumers. At the same time, the Fed continues to cut interest
rates, expecting that inflation will be temporary. We assume the Fed responds by raising
interest rates modestly in the second half of 2026. As inflation comes down, the Fed is able to
cut rates at the start of 2027. Source: Michael Wolf - Deloitte Global Economics Research Center
The Upside scenario
The Downside scenario
US Market
With the strong momentum and positive global investor in diversified their capital
especially in US Market therefore we expected US Index continue to soar and here is our
conviction base on investment behavior momentums for the rest of year 2025:
- S&P500 will break it’s records to above 7100
- Dow Jones will break it’s records to above 48100
- Nasdaq will break its record to above 25000
- Mag 7 expected to grow another 10% to 20%
Magnificent 7
EUROPE ECONOMIC FORECAST
The EU economy continues to generate modest growth amidst a rapidly shifting
geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, which is further complicated by emerging
domestic challenges. With trade invoicing in dollars, the spillovers from trade diversion
are more detrimental to the EU, owing to a stronger global downturn. In an alternative
scenario, dominant currency pricing hinders international relative price adjustments,
leading to sharper declines in global trade and GDP. On balance, US tariffs on third
countries inflict short-term economic losses on the EU, but can have a beneficial impact
in the longer term. By constraining terms-of-trade adjustments, DCP weakens
expenditure switching in driving trade diversion (see dashed lines in Graph 1). In contrast,
expenditure changing becomes more important. As the deeper tariff-induced global
recession reduces import demand from third countries, EU exports are lower than under
PCP, despite a smaller terms-of trade appreciation. The weaker export performance also
weighs on EU GDP, reducing import demand to such an extent that imports decline -
despite the EU’s terms-of-trade still appreciating. This contrasts with PCP (blue dashed
line), where trade diversion was reflected in higher imports from tariff-hit third countries.
Source: European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2025
CHINA ECONOMIC FORECAST
China’s Economy is Forecast to Grow Faster Than Expected in 2026
China’s surprising strength in exports and its commitment to more advanced manufacturing in
a new Five-Year Plan boost is raising expectations for GDP growth.
Goldman Sachs Research sees 5-6% annual growth in China’s exports and raised its real GDP
forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to well above consensus.
The approval of the new Five-Year Plan proposal highlights the government’s determination
and capability to keep advancing its manufacturing and boost its export market share.
A meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, signalling a truce on trade,
has also improved the growth outlook, even while showing China’s leverage over rare earth
minerals to push back on trade restrictions.
The drag on economic growth caused by China’s property downturn is beginning to ebb,
although there is a long way to go to work through excess housing inventory.
China’s economy is likely to grow more quickly than previously forecast, helped by the
government’s determination to advance the competitiveness of manufacturing and boost
exports, Goldman Sachs Research finds.
China’s real export growth is now expected to grow by 5-6% annually for the next few years, up
from a previous forecast of 2-3%, as Chinese goods gain global market share, Goldman Sachs
Research economists Andrew Tilton and Hui Shan write in the team’s report.
INDONESIA MARKETPOINT OF VIEW
IMF: Indonesia Remains a Global Bright Spot with Stable 5% Growth Outlook in 2025–2026
According to the IMF, Indonesia’s effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policies has
played a significant role in sustaining macroeconomic stability and economic momentum.
The IMF highlighted Indonesia’s robust growth, well-anchored inflation, and strong external
buffers despite persistent global uncertainties.
This assessment reinforces Indonesia’s position as a key economic anchor in Asia and a
preferred destination for long-term investment.
The IMF projects:
- GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025
- GDP growth of 5.1% in 2026
- Inflation converging toward the midpoint of Bank Indonesia’s target range
- A well-contained current account deficit
- Comfortable foreign exchange reserves
The IMF noted that risks to Indonesia’s economic outlook remain tilted to the downside due to:
escalating global trade tensions, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, volatility in global
financial markets, weaker external demand.
However, the IMF also underscored substantial upside potential if Indonesia accelerates
structural reforms, particularly in: regulatory simplification and investment climate
improvements, strengthening trade integration and reducing non-tariff barriers, enhancing
infrastructure quality, boosting productivity across sectors, improving governance and anticorruption measures, supporting MSME transformation and encouraging FDI.
The IMF highlighted Indonesia’s proactive trade diplomacy—particularly recent progress with
Canada and the EU (IEU-CEPA), as well as ongoing negotiations with the United States—as a
positive step toward unlocking long-term productivity gains. Source: Editor Asiatoday Nov 17’ 2025
FISCAL UPDATES
Recent Indonesia’s Economic and Capital Market Issues
EQUITY MARKET, BONDS, RUPIAH, MUTUAL FUND AND SHARIA CAPITAL MARKET
The market generally shows positive trend in 10 years period; here are the indices based on
sectoral trend. Source: IDX – Indonesia Economic Outlook Nov 2025
Indonesia’s equity market has shown moderate growth since 2013
Foreign investors recorded net sell in both bond and equity instruments last month
Foreign vs Domestic Investors Composition in Equity Market
Domestic investor is now leading in the market as shown by ownership and trading value
Domestic Mutual Funds
Mutual funds allow investors to diversify and professionally manage portfolios at a more
affordable price
Sharia Capital Market
Indonesia is believed to have great potential to become a strong Islamic capital market
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
- US market still our main recommendation despite the ratio consider high but due to the continues grow of their project, revenue and profit also market capitalizations therefore we should follow the trend till the next 3 years.
- Asia Pacific will be the next gold mine since the robust grow after the survival mode – post covid and follow by Trump’s Tariff. China is the most wanted country need to be visited by Donald Trump within the next couple of weeks in order to ease the tense and have win – win economic ‘shake hand’ for the sake of global trade peace.
- Equity market definitely became the ‘King Maker’ for global investor including for Indonesia’s investor to be keep invested even need to bear the volatilities but worth to keep for the next 3 years.
- Indonesia market will focus more toward to Conglomerates shares as the main ‘pie’ but with selective calculations. Meanwhile, bond market also another good underlying especially those that provide coupon above 8% (getting less due to the expected BI cut rate follow the Fed rate cut) and can be from corporate bond rather only from government bond.
Strategies and next steps
We are strongly recommendation Moderate Risk Appetite position compare other Risk
Appetite position until Q1 2026 from now on due to our stand point is Market Opportunities.
Here are our portfolios recommendation based on the availability underlying in Indonesia:
- Up to 45% in US and Asia Pacific Equity with main sector in Technology and the Downstream which using Sharia Funds (US Denomination) combine with certain selective Indonesia stocks that based on Energy, Commodity, Property and Digital Connectivity (IDR Denomination).
- Up to 55% in Corporate Bonds and Fixed Income Fund (combine US and IDR Denomination) with minimum Single A Rating by Pefindo and maximum 5 years maturity.
- PINA Private provide the products that serve the needs of the recommendation such as:
- Batavia Technology Sharia Equity – US Equity
- Eastspring Syariah Equity Islamic Asia Pacific USD Kelas A – Asia Pacific Equity
- SUCORINVEST Bond Fund – Fixed Income Fund
- Sinarmas group bonds, WIFI – IJEE bonds and many more, please contact our
- marketing for the best recommendation.
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cannot be held liable or otherwise responsible in any way for any advice, action
taken, or decision made on the basis of the facts and opinions stated or expressed
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This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.
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